Donald Trump's trade policies have triggered a significant decline in shipments at major US ports, raising fears of an impending recession.

By mid-April 2025, container bookings from China to the US plummeted by 45%, highlighting a stark reduction in trade activity.

The Port of Los Angeles anticipates a nearly 30% drop in vessel arrivals compared to the same period last year, underscoring the impact of these trade policies.

The San Pedro Bay ports, including Los Angeles and Long Beach, are vital for US imports, handling nearly a third of the nation's containerized trade.

Kathleen Brooks from XTB noted that the decrease in container bookings would significantly affect Chinese businesses, although a Chinese state planner remains optimistic about achieving economic growth targets for 2025.

Economists warn that Trump's tariffs, which impose a 145% tax on Chinese imports and a 10% border tax on goods from other countries, could lead to higher consumer prices and hinder economic growth.

Executives from major retailers like Walmart and Target have voiced concerns that these tariffs could disrupt supply chains and result in product shortages.

Experts predict that the decline in shipping activity will negatively impact US trucking demand, potentially leading to empty shelves and layoffs in the retail sector as soon as next month.

Consumer confidence has hit record lows, and there is a noticeable slowdown in tourism, especially in international travel.

The decline in shipping activity may also be attributed to a pre-inauguration rush to import goods before tariffs were implemented.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted at a potential deal with China regarding tariffs following discussions during the recent IMF and World Bank meetings.

Analysis from Apollo Global Management indicates a drop in new business orders and declining investment plans among companies in the wake of Trump's trade announcements.

Economist Paul Krugman likened the current trade collapse to the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, attributing the chaos to Trump's unpredictable policies.