The European Union is at a critical juncture, facing the risk of losing its climate leadership and jeopardizing its ability to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal due to internal political divisions and the absence of clear climate targets for 2035 and 2040.

To effectively combat climate change, a robust target for 2035 is essential, aiming for a reduction of at least 78-80% in emissions, including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF), or 74% excluding LULUCF, with a focus on substantial cuts in the years leading up to 2035.

The EU must reject the use of international offsets that could dilute its climate targets, instead prioritizing genuine domestic emission reductions to ensure accountability and effectiveness.

In order to maintain its leadership role, the EU should commit to a 2040 target that mandates a reduction of at least 90-95% in emissions compared to 1990 levels, as advised by the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC).

Current analyses suggest that without decisive action in the near term, the EU's prospects of achieving its 2050 climate neutrality goal will significantly diminish.

The European Commission's strategy for a 2040 target is faltering, with no definitive timeline established for the 2035 target, and some Member States pushing for less ambitious climate goals.

To reaffirm its commitment to ambitious climate targets and maintain its leadership position, the EU must act swiftly and demonstrate international solidarity in climate finance.

Debates are ongoing regarding three potential 2040 targets: S1 proposes up to an 80% reduction, S2 suggests an 85-90% reduction, and S3 advocates for a 90-95% reduction, the latter aligning with ESABCC recommendations.

The EU's credibility as a global climate leader is jeopardized by recent delays and cuts in climate finance commitments, which could further undermine its standing on the international stage.

The push for international carbon credits poses a risk to the EU's domestic ambitions, as historical experiences with international offsets have often resulted in weakened incentives for meaningful emissions reductions.