CBO Warns Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' Could Skyrocket Federal Deficit by $2.8 Trillion
June 17, 2025
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has analyzed President Donald Trump's proposed 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' and found it would increase the federal deficit by approximately $2.8 trillion over the next decade, even considering expected economic growth.
These findings contradict the Republican argument that tax cuts and economic policies would generate enough additional tax revenue to offset the costs of the bill.
Despite including around $1.5 trillion in spending cuts, the bill is projected to increase the federal budget deficit by $1.7 trillion over ten years.
Economic experts express skepticism about the bill's potential, suggesting it may provide even less economic stimulus than the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
The right-leaning Tax Foundation predicts the House-approved bill will boost the economy by only 0.8% over 30 years, significantly lower than the 1.7% boost attributed to the TCJA.
To offset the $4 trillion cost of extending Trump's first-term tax cuts, the bill includes unpopular cuts to programs like Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act, presenting a dilemma for Republicans.
The Senate Finance Committee has proposed deeper Medicaid cuts and new work requirements for parents of older teens to help offset these costs.
The Senate version of the bill includes provisions that could make some business tax cuts permanent, enhancing growth potential but also increasing costs.
Today, Republicans continue to avoid discussing potential tax increases, adhering to the anti-tax orthodoxy established in the 1990s, even in light of significant debt increases from Trump's proposed budget.
Experts argue that while corporate tax breaks may encourage short-term investment, they will not foster sustainable long-term economic growth.
The Trump administration dismisses negative assessments from independent analysts, asserting that prior predictions of economic doom following the 2017 tax cuts were incorrect.
The CBO's dynamic analysis indicates that the legislation would not pay for itself, undermining claims that it would lead to a booming economy.
Summary based on 5 sources
Get a daily email with more US News stories
Sources

AP News • Jun 17, 2025
Trump tax bill would widen deficits by $2.8T over the next decade, CBO says | AP News
Foreign Policy • Jun 16, 2025
How Republicans Became the Anti-Tax Party
Alternet.org • Jun 17, 2025
'Disappoint every Republican': New analysis of Trump's bill debunks GOP's 'main arguments'