CBO Warns Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' Could Skyrocket Federal Deficit by $2.8 Trillion

June 17, 2025
CBO Warns Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' Could Skyrocket Federal Deficit by $2.8 Trillion
  • The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has analyzed President Donald Trump's proposed 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' and found it would increase the federal deficit by approximately $2.8 trillion over the next decade, even considering expected economic growth.

  • These findings contradict the Republican argument that tax cuts and economic policies would generate enough additional tax revenue to offset the costs of the bill.

  • Despite including around $1.5 trillion in spending cuts, the bill is projected to increase the federal budget deficit by $1.7 trillion over ten years.

  • Economic experts express skepticism about the bill's potential, suggesting it may provide even less economic stimulus than the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

  • The right-leaning Tax Foundation predicts the House-approved bill will boost the economy by only 0.8% over 30 years, significantly lower than the 1.7% boost attributed to the TCJA.

  • To offset the $4 trillion cost of extending Trump's first-term tax cuts, the bill includes unpopular cuts to programs like Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act, presenting a dilemma for Republicans.

  • The Senate Finance Committee has proposed deeper Medicaid cuts and new work requirements for parents of older teens to help offset these costs.

  • The Senate version of the bill includes provisions that could make some business tax cuts permanent, enhancing growth potential but also increasing costs.

  • Today, Republicans continue to avoid discussing potential tax increases, adhering to the anti-tax orthodoxy established in the 1990s, even in light of significant debt increases from Trump's proposed budget.

  • Experts argue that while corporate tax breaks may encourage short-term investment, they will not foster sustainable long-term economic growth.

  • The Trump administration dismisses negative assessments from independent analysts, asserting that prior predictions of economic doom following the 2017 tax cuts were incorrect.

  • The CBO's dynamic analysis indicates that the legislation would not pay for itself, undermining claims that it would lead to a booming economy.

Summary based on 5 sources


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