The U.S. public school system is experiencing a significant decline in enrollment, projected to decrease from 51 million in 2019 to 47 million by 2031, driven by declining birth rates and migration patterns.

Over a million students left the K-12 system between 2019 and 2023, with enrollment dropping by 2.5%, and this trend is expected to continue as birth rates hit historic lows and families move to states like Florida, Texas, and Arizona.

As enrollment declines, schools are facing closures, with 98 closures reported across 15 states during the 2023-2024 school year, leading to reduced funding, larger class sizes, and cuts to staff and programs.

Reduced enrollment has forced districts to cut staff, classes, and extracurricular activities, which diminishes student support and opportunities, resulting in larger classes and fewer resources.

Meanwhile, increased interest in homeschooling and private schools, supported by legislation facilitating school choice options like vouchers and education savings accounts, is pulling students from public schools, with about 40% of K-12 students now having access to such programs.

Homeschooling enrollment surged by 90% in the 2022-2023 school year across states tracking this metric, further contributing to the decline in public school enrollment.

Migration from high-cost states such as California and New York to more affordable areas like Florida and Arizona is also reducing enrollment in some districts, although declining birth rates are the primary driver.

The decline in birth rates, which fell to historic lows with a 3% decrease in 2022, is a key factor reducing the number of students entering the system, especially in early grades.

State regulations often mandate staffing levels that do not adjust for declining student populations, forcing schools to lay off teachers and maintain certain staffing levels, which can hinder efficiency and increase costs.

Experts suggest that downsizing or restructuring schools, though challenging under current policies, could sometimes benefit small schools by reducing unnecessary staffing and improving resource allocation.

While declining birth rates and migration patterns are primary factors, immigration has historically offset some declines, but current estimates suggest it will no longer be sufficient to sustain enrollment levels.