Australia’s birth rate is projected to decline to about 1.45 children per woman in 2026, with a slow recovery to around 1.62 by 2031-32, still well below the replacement level of 2.1.

Population growth is forecast to slow to a record low of roughly 1.3 percent in 2026, down from 1.5 percent the year before.

Despite the slowing growth, Australia is expected to reach a population of 28 million by mid-2026, marking a historic milestone.

Policy responses include expanding universal early education and care and boosting paid parental leave as part of a broader migration and family-support strategy.

The Treasurer notes ongoing improvements in migration settings and population policy, citing the 2025 Population Statement as a foundation for future actions.

The median age is projected to rise to about 40.2 years by 2035-36, signaling an aging population and implications for health and aged care demand.

By 2050, Sydney and Melbourne are each projected to reach around 8 million residents, with Melbourne potentially surpassing 9 million by the 2060s.

Despite headwinds, Australia’s working-age population is expected to keep growing, offering resilience relative to many OECD peers.

Dementia has overtaken ischaemic heart disease as the leading cause of death in Australia.

New South Wales is projected to remain the most populous state, reaching about 9.6 million by 2035-36, accounting for roughly 30% of the national population.

Western Australia is forecast to have the highest population growth at about 1.8% per year, while Tasmania’s growth remains very slow at around 0.1%.

The fertility replacement level of 2.1 is not anticipated to be met for nearly five decades.