English councils warn that SEND debts are forecast to reach a record 10bn over the next 18 months due to rising demand for EHCPs and SEND support in schools.

A government spokesperson acknowledged ongoing strain in the SEND system, announced billions in investment to improve access to specialists, and promised details on deficits support before March 2028.

The Fonagy report confirms a real rise in SEND conditions and associated distress, warning that demand is unsustainable without new management approaches for public services.

The County Councils Network argues overspending is driven by statutory demand growth, not reckless council behavior, and calls for a ministerial guarantee to cover future SEND debts.

Ministers have agreed to fund 90% of English top-tier councils’ SEND debts accrued up to March 2026; future debt coverage remains unclear and could require further government support beyond March 2028 when current overrides expire.

Publicly reported overspends are significant, with some councils forecasting deficits well over 100m in 2026-27, including Hampshire’s 200m projection for the year.

The surge in EHCP applications is partly attributed to a rush by parents and schools to secure support ahead of forthcoming reforms that aim to replace the current EHCP system with a more inclusive SEND framework in mainstream schools.

Despite 5bn in historic SEND debts being cleared, authorities expect to re-accrue that amount by April 2027 and double it by 2028, threatening local authority finances and potentially leading to solvency issues.

EHCPs are legally binding documents detailing needed support for pupils up to age 25, enabling access to funding and placement in specialized settings; the trend shows a continuing rise in EHCPs despite reforms.

If there is no ministerial commitment to reducing future SEND debts, the CCN warns that even 10% of ongoing debts could threaten solvency for some councils and lead to bankruptcies or drastic frontline cuts.

As of January, 718,000 young people in England had EHCPs, a 12.5% year-on-year rise and the largest annual increase since EHCPs began in 2014; 1.3 million more young people have identified SEND needs.