Access to EU defense funding and closer integration could help align candidate countries’ defense industries with EU standards, while exposing risks from dependencies on Russia and China as seen in Serbia’s arms imports.

A cautious path to enlargement is favored by some, emphasizing strict political solvency of conflicts and a phased approach toward a European defense union and pan-European enhanced cooperation on security.

Instability, hybrid threats, and unresolved territorial disputes in places like Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Moldova’s Transnistria, and Georgia complicate membership decisions and call for safeguards such as reversibility of benefits and post-accession oversight.

The Western Balkans could become a critical security corridor and mobility hub for Europe, easing force movements and expanding defense production capacity through enhanced corridors if infrastructure and cooperation are strengthened.

The EU has deepened security ties through mechanisms like the European Peace Facility with candidate countries and Ukraine, but the core question remains how to expand security without importing new vulnerabilities.

The enlargement framework has shifted to prioritize security considerations, with Russia’s invasion accelerating emphasis on defense ties of candidate and nearby states.

Defense alignments vary among candidates: Albania and Montenegro are NATO members; Georgia is not; Serbia maintains military neutrality and ties with Russia and China, creating a mixed security landscape for enlargement.

Security should be a primary membership criterion alongside rule of law and democracy, reflecting EU border risk exposure.

Ultimately, the debate centers on choosing a more unified, secure Europe through enlargement or a more fragmented Europe exposed to external pressures, with ongoing questions about timelines, safeguards, and defense integration.

The region already has defense-industrial potential, with Serbia hosting many defense firms and Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro contributing ammunition and vehicle production, offering opportunities to diversify European supply chains.