A new Global Carbon Project report released as COP31 opened in Antalya, Türkiye, projects that fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions will dip slightly in 2026, but warns that one year of decline does not establish a lasting peak.

The report forecasts fossil-fuel emissions will fall 0.4% to 38.2 billion tonnes, as renewable energy and electric vehicles help meet rising demand while the Iran conflict curbs oil use.

The conflict has disrupted energy markets after Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, a route for about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade, pushing prices higher.

Researchers disagree on whether the dip signals a turning point: Niklas Höhne sees expanding electric-vehicle use as evidence emissions may be near or past their peak, while Malte Meinshausen warns that windfall profits could encourage oil producers elsewhere to expand exploration.

Combined emissions from fossil fuels and land use have grown an average of 0.3% a year over the past decade, down from 1.7% in the previous decade; 59 countries recorded lower emissions in 2025 than in 2019 while their economies grew.

Land-use emissions remain a drag on progress, with fires in drained peatlands and worsening forest conditions in equatorial Asia contributing to rising emissions; reforestation removed an average 2.1 billion tonnes of CO₂ a year from 2016 to 2025, but deforestation emissions were nearly twice as large.

More than 140 scientists contributed to the Global Carbon Project’s 21st annual update, published as a preprint that has not yet undergone peer review.

The report arrives as scientists say the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal can no longer be achieved, though rapid cuts to fossil-fuel emissions could limit the period of overshoot and help bring temperatures back down.

Researchers say the path forward is clear: accelerate renewables and batteries, protect forests and peatlands, reduce fossil-fuel use at its source, and strengthen climate commitments and financing.

At COP31, nearly 200 countries are focused on implementing existing commitments, while negotiating stronger national climate plans, climate finance and a possible expansion of electrification.

Australia’s Chris Bowen and Türkiye are seeking support for a target to raise electricity’s share of final energy use to 35% by 2035; India opposes the effort, while China supports it.

Representatives of the 44 least developed countries back the electrification goal but say they need grants, technology and training, warning that loans could deepen already severe debt burdens.