France’s wine and spirits exports fell for the third year in 2025, sliding 8% in value to 14.3 billion euros and 3% in volume to 168 million cases as tariffs in the US and duties in China bite into demand.

Exports to China dropped about 20% to 767 million euros amid Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs affecting cognac, Armagnac, and other brandies.

Since 2022, overall export value has fallen about 17%, shifting France’s top export sectors away from aerospace and cosmetics toward other industries amid ongoing trade tensions.

The near-term outlook remains difficult due to geopolitical tensions and tariff barriers, even as some regional diversification shows promise.

Industry chatter remains cautious, attributing most challenges to macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks, while Wine Paris promotes trends like Bordeaux Young and lighter styles.

Growth potential is seen in non-traditional markets such as Canada, Africa, and Mercosur regions, though the US market’s rebound in 2026 remains uncertain.

Industry leaders question whether 2026 will mirror continued declines or hint at a recovery amid ongoing tariff and geopolitical pressures.

Officials see potential in EU-level trade deals, including Mercosur and EU-India negotiations, to expand access for wines and spirits.

Exporters cite geopolitics, economic uncertainty, and currency swings as headwinds, but the sector remains the third-largest contributor to France’s beverage trade surplus.

Diversification appears underway with strong momentum in South Africa (+22% to €182 million) and markets like Vietnam, the Philippines, and Australia, as traditional markets contract.

Within Europe, exports held steady at about €4.1 billion, with the UK showing resilience as volumes rose around 3% despite fiscal pressures.

tariff dynamics and policy framing, including a 15% tariff rate after 2025 adjustments, shape the sector’s current trajectory.