Today’s quantum technology is far from capable; breaking keys would require millions of qubits and would not be feasible for years, pushing meaningful risk into the 2030s or later.

The FAQ outlines about 8% vulnerability, the need for a 100,000x more powerful quantum computer to break keys, a 10–15 year timeline, ongoing quantum-resistant preparations, and clarifications of earlier overestimations.

Disclaimer notes this is not trading advice and urges independent research.

Ledger’s CTO notes that cracking current asymmetric cryptography would need millions of qubits; current examples show limited qubit counts and stability challenges rise sharply with scale.

The piece closes with a call for measured, proactive risk management and ongoing development of quantum-resistant technologies to safeguard the crypto ecosystem.

There is no imminent quantum emergency threatening Bitcoin, and the ecosystem has time to implement mitigations as technology advances.

The industry is already advancing post-quantum cryptography, including lattice-based, hash-based, and multivariate schemes, with dedicated teams and academia partnerships.

Only about 8% of Bitcoin’s supply sits in legacy addresses exposing public keys; modern addresses are shielded from quantum attacks until a transaction is broadcast.

Approximately 1.6 million BTC (around 8% of supply) are in old P2PK addresses exposing keys, with a small subset of large UTXOs (roughly 10,200 BTC) potentially disruptive if stolen, contingent on extreme computing power and energy costs.

Quantum computing poses a long-term, manageable threat to Bitcoin rather than an immediate crisis, with practical attacks expected years or decades away.

Bitcoin’s security rests on elliptic-curve cryptography and SHA-256, with exposed public-key addresses posing the primary vulnerability if quantum capability advances.

Experts warn against complacency; decentralized systems require proactive adoption of post-quantum cryptography to reduce long-term risk and avoid rushed decisions later.