A new international study warns that Europe’s forest area damaged by fires, storms and pests could significantly increase by the end of the century under climate change scenarios, potentially doubling in severe warming conditions.

The study uses an AI-based simulation trained on 135 million data points from 13,000 European locations, combined with multi-decadal satellite data, to model disturbances at a detailed hectare level and reveal regional differences.

Southern and Western Europe are projected to experience the strongest disturbance changes, Northern Europe may see fewer overall impacts but with hotspots, and forest sectors and ecosystem services could be affected across regions.

The authors emphasize a multi-faceted response: cutting greenhouse gas emissions and managing forests to boost resilience against climate extremes, including how forest practices can strengthen resistance to future stressors.

Reduced forest carbon uptake is expected as damages rise, increasing pressure on other sectors to accelerate emissions reductions.

The findings call for forest policy and management to prepare for more disturbances, buffer service fluctuations, and explore climate-resilient forests that can recover and adapt to changing disturbance regimes.

Researchers advocate integrating rising disturbance levels into policy and management, supported by new scientific methods, to mitigate risks and seize opportunities for climate-resilient forest futures.

Disturbances affect carbon storage, timber supply and wildlife habitat, necessitating adaptive forest management that buffers services and leverages disturbances for climate-resilient restoration.

Massive reforestation could help sequester carbon, but future forests may absorb less CO2 as warming continues and dead trees release stored CO2, potentially turning forests from sinks into sources if fires or pests kill standing timber.

Disturbances shift forest structure toward younger stands, reducing mature carbon storage and altering habitats, weakening Europe’s forest carbon sink and resilience.

The report advocates for mixed-species forests to diversify risk and reduce vulnerability to pests and climate shocks, with ongoing trials to identify effective species combinations.