Australians lost $2.18 billion to scams in 2025, prompting calls for banks, telcos, and social platforms to work under the Scams Prevention Framework Act 2025 to detect, prevent, and report scams; banks would compensate only if standards are met.

In an interview, Miller reiterates that a recession should be anticipated given the combination of inflation, cost-of-living pressures, and global tensions.

APRA has ordered banks to cap new lending with high debt-to-income ratios at 20% of total, aiming to curb risky lending amid housing affordability challenges.

With two rate rises already in 2026, analysts say the RBA could push the cash rate toward about 4.35% if inflation remains persistent.

Westpac’s chief executive argues lending is compliant with responsible guidelines and that housing costs are driven largely by supply constraints and tax incentives, not excessive bank lending.

Analysts say the path of rate increases and external pressures will determine whether the economy stalls or maintains growth.

Household finances illustrate a gap: median income around $90,000–$95,000 supports borrowing of roughly $600,000–$650,000, while the national median home price sits about $933,137, highlighting a housing supply shortfall in affordable ranges.

Australia’s central bank has lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, marking a second hike in as many months, with comments that further tightening could come but may not be as harsh as in 2025.

Oxford Economics warns that rising oil prices and a prolonged downturn could tip the global economy into recession, with Brent crude potentially hitting US$190 a barrel in a worst-case scenario.

Overall, Miller says Australia could face a recession if inflation and tensions persist, weighing on the economy.

Canstar’s Sally Tindall notes the rapid rate cycle shift as market expectations for further tightening grow amid global tensions feeding domestic costs.

Westpac’s Miller warns a recession is a real possibility for Australia amid ongoing inflation pressures and geopolitical tensions that affect energy prices and inflation dynamics.