Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in April as employment fell by 18,600 for the month, marking the highest jobless rate in around four-and-a-half years.

The ABS also noted the first decline in female employment since August 2025, with more Australians out of work in April.

AUD/USD weakened after the data, testing support around the 50-day moving average near 0.7100, with initial downside targets near 0.7000 and 0.6964 if support breaks.

Near-term resistance for AUD/USD sits around 0.7185, with gains often capped near this level.

The pair’s resistance and support levels are framed by roughly 0.7185 and 0.7100, while longer-term downside targets loom at 0.7000 and 0.6964.

The rise in unemployment comes after two rate hikes this year and ahead of the May decision; inflation remains near a three-year high and jobs data exceeded expectations.

Markets priced in a much lower probability of a June RBA rate hike after the data, with expectations dropping sharply.

Markets welcomed the weaker data, lifting the ASX 200 as investors priced in a reduced near-term risk of further rate hikes, though odds of a later hike rose modestly.

The unemployment uptick and softer employment data reduced near-term rate-hike expectations, with the probability of a June move falling toward single digits.

April’s figures show a sharp labour-market deterioration, with unemployment above the RBA’s 4.2% forecast for the first half of 2026, fueling talk of a potential June policy pause.

Overall, the labour market remains resilient but shows early loosening signs that could influence future monetary policy.

Private-sector weakness persisted with manufacturing data showing contraction in orders and employment amid high inflation and energy costs.