This update was published on June 24, 2026, reflecting the latest data as of 1:30pm.

Overall May prices fell 0.7% in original terms, with a smaller 0.1% drop when seasonally adjusted, while housing costs remained inflation hotspots.

The inflation backdrop remains hotter than expected, signaling the RBA will likely tread cautiously before any move away from higher rates.

With softer headline inflation but firmer core measures, the RBA sits in a cautious stance after three rate hikes this year, holding the cash rate at 4.35%, while markets eye roughly a 60% chance of at least one more hike this year.

May inflation presents a mixed signal—headlines easing yet still elevated, and a higher trimmed mean—leaving traders unsure whether the RBA will tighten further or hold steady.

Housing costs drove headline inflation higher, rising 6.5% on housing components like electricity, new homes, and rents, with electricity up 21.1% year over year after rebates ended.

Future petrol prices are set to rise in July and August due to fuel excise changes, though a global drop in oil prices could offset some of that impact.

Further rate moves depend on ongoing inflation trends, with temporary relief from fuel tax measures dampening near-term price pressure.

Major inflation drivers in May include electricity up 21.1%, housing up 6.5%, and food and transport rising about 3.3%, highlighting housing, electricity, and services as core pressures.

Electricity costs surged after government rebates ended, becoming a major inflation factor.

The article is largely informational about fund data and carries extensive disclosures on accuracy, risk, and regulatory limits.

Treasurer stressed that fuel excise cuts helped moderate inflation, but broader drivers like construction costs and the Iran conflict push up prices.