Bitcoin is straining to push above $65,000, with a potential rally to roughly $72,000–$74,000 if bulls gain traction, while a test of $60,000 as support remains in focus after repeated rejections near $64,200.

Glassnode’s MVRV bands show Bitcoin trading below the lower valuation zone, with a deep-value magnet near $50,437 implying possible further downside.

A weekly bear-flag breakdown puts the 200-week moving average around $62,000 as a critical support; a close below this could open a path toward sub-$50,000 levels.

Rising ETF demand and a shift toward more institutional and corporate holders could help compress future drawdowns and reduce volatility.

Analysts cite recent outflows and macro headlines as drivers of bearish sentiment, with some attributing the move to broader structural factors like ETF withdrawals rather than a single sale.

Independent assessment suggests the market may be in a late-stage corrective or transitional phase, with near-term momentum bearish but valuation metrics moving toward accumulation.

Bottom catalysts could include de-escalation of geopolitical tensions and a potentially dovish shift from the Federal Reserve.

Experts caution that the bear market may not be over despite sizable prior declines, given ETF outflows, tight macro conditions, liquidity dynamics, and on-chain stress.

Analysts from CoinEx, DWF Labs, and B2PRIME Group contend the bottom is unlikely to be in under current macro and market conditions.

On-chain dynamics and altcoins, such as Hyperliquid’s HYPE, are seen as market-specific signals rather than Bitcoin-driven moves.

The ongoing death cross persists, a pattern historically preceding capitulation and further downside in past cycles, with other indicators signaling risk.