Under a new structure, Coinbase would receive 90% of the USDC reserve yields generated on Hyperliquid’s platform, a shift from the prior more balanced split.

The OpenUSD launch is viewed as increasing margin pressure on incumbents by enabling more favorable revenue-sharing terms for some partners.

Market observers may view this deal as a potential reference point for other venues, with ongoing scrutiny of USDC balances, reserve yield sharing, and future earnings updates.

Mizuho’s note suggests Circle’s OCC approval to establish the First National Digital Currency Bank is a positive milestone but not a cure for USDC growth amid competitive pressures.

Hyperliquid reportedly holds about $6 billion of USDC, roughly 8% of circulating supply, giving it significant leverage in revenue talks.

There is uncertainty about Circle’s ability to renegotiate without losing volume, given user sensitivity to liquidity and fees, and the scenario could unfold similarly at other major venues if favorable terms are secured.

The broader implication is that stablecoin revenue could shift toward utility-style returns as DeFi and high-throughput venues grow, reshaping incentives for issuers and USDC liquidity stability.

Hyperliquid’s rapid growth and deeper integration with Circle and Coinbase are prompting a reassessment of stablecoin economics, with JPMorgan warning it could erode Circle’s USDC revenue model.

Overall, structural changes in revenue-sharing and rising competition may limit earnings potential for lenders and payment/crypto players involved in stablecoins.

Mizuho Securities downgraded Circle to underperform, citing new competitors offering more favorable revenue-sharing terms that could compress margins industry-wide.

Long-term concerns include reduced profitability for Circle due to rate cuts reducing reserve yield, competition from USDT, and potential regulatory costs requiring higher capital or reserve diversification.

Broader margin pressure from OpenUSD, a consortium-backed stablecoin, which shares most reserve income with distribution partners and intensifies competition.