A strong El Niño is developing in the Pacific and is expected to push global temperatures higher in 2027, potentially making that year the hottest on modern records due to the combined force of El Niño and long-term greenhouse warming.

Climate researchers, including experts like Daniel Swain, warn that when paired with persistently high global temperatures, El Niño could drive global mean temperatures to new records in 2026 and likely 2027, if not both years.

Scientists are monitoring potential impacts such as more powerful hurricanes and typhoons, shifting rainfall, and disruptions to monsoon systems as the climate responds to El Niño’s combination with ongoing warming.

El Niño’s mechanism involves a cyclical rise in Pacific surface water temperatures along the equator, driven by warmer waters off Peru and Ecuador, acting as a key predictor for weather anomalies.

El Niño is a natural warming phenomenon of the central and eastern Pacific roughly every 2–7 years, influencing global weather by promoting hotter, drier conditions in many regions and altering Atlantic cyclone activity.

Beyond heat, El Niño is expected to alter atmospheric circulation and rainfall worldwide, bringing more rainfall to parts of the Americas and Asia, while favoring drier conditions in Australia and parts of Southeast Asia.

The current El Niño is unusually strong, with subsurface Pacific heat nearing 8°C and a broader heat distribution than the 1997–98 event, enabling more heat to reach the atmosphere.

While El Niño amplifies warming, scientists stress that greenhouse gas–driven warming sets the baseline, so powerful El Niños start from a warmer global temperature and raise the odds of record-breaking heat and extreme weather.

NOAA has officially declared the onset of El Niño, with forecasts showing it could strengthen through the rest of 2026 and a 60% chance that central and eastern Pacific temperature anomalies exceed 2°C by year’s end.

Early impacts include unusual heat and humidity in parts of California and shifts in Atlantic cyclone activity, illustrating the broader regional effects of El Niño.