Climate models show strong agreement on the outlook, boosting confidence in the projections.

El Niño is expected to push temperatures higher in the central and eastern Pacific and reshape global wind, pressure, and rainfall patterns, increasing heatwaves, droughts, heavy rain, and other extremes in many regions.

The warning comes from the World Meteorological Organization and was reported on July 3, 2026, with NOAA confirming the phenomenon began in May 2026.

The Atlantic equatorial basin is forecast to stay warmer than average, and most populated areas outside the polar regions are likely to see above‑average temperatures from July through September.

The WMO notes there is no proof that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño itself, but climate change may amplify the impacts when events occur.

Potential consequences include heightened risk of extreme weather such as tornadoes, winter storms, and floods in some areas, while other regions may receive beneficial rainfall and face reduced hurricane activity.

Scientists emphasize that El Niño raises the odds of certain weather patterns but does not guarantee them, with outcomes varying due to complex atmospheric–ocean interactions.

El Niño effects will interact with global warming and rising sea levels, potentially raising California coastal sea levels and contributing to coastal flooding during high tides and storms.

The event’s strength is expected to be high, potentially ranking among the five strongest El Niños since 1982, though exact strength varies across models.

UN agencies and the WMO have mobilized unprecedented coordination to support governments, climate-sensitive sectors, and vulnerable communities with early warnings and climate information.

There is a focus on expanding early warning and preparedness in agriculture and health to mitigate impacts through advanced seasonal forecasts.

Regional impacts include higher ARkStorm-type flood risk in California, more wildfires in Indonesia, and effects on marine life and upwelling near the Galápagos, with broader implications for droughts and groundwater recharge in the southeastern United States.