The contiguous United States recorded its hottest July on average, at 76.89°F (24.94°C) across the Lower 48, topping the 1936 July record by 0.125°F, signaling a historic heat event.

NOAA ties the extreme heat to climate-change trends, highlighting unusually warm nights and implications for health, agriculture, and infrastructure.

Forecasts point to an exceptionally strong El Niño this year, potentially the strongest on record, following 2023–24 which were among the hottest years on record.

Analyses show the main effects will come through shifts in jet streams and atmospheric circulation, increasing drought risk in some areas and heavy rainfall in others.

Predictions are probabilistic, with impacts varying by region, and require ongoing monitoring over the coming months.

NOAA data indicate significant rainfall deficits across the Florida Peninsula and parts of Texas, contributing to water scarcity despite some localized rainfall gains.

Regions at elevated risk for extreme rainfall or drought through October include large parts of the U.S., the Caribbean, Central and South America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, South and Southeast Asia, and the Pacific islands.

Policy critiques note alignment with fossil fuels, including reopening coal plants and reliance on AI data centers powered by gas generators, which could worsen emissions.

Methodology uses ERA5 and ACIS data from 192 U.S. city stations, with regions defined by NOAA climate regions to analyze trends.

Drought-related damages were estimated at $2.5 billion in the first half of 2026, with annual drought costs previously projected at about $4 billion for 2025.

The prognosis remains grim, with forecasts suggesting the possibility of many more extreme heat days and calls for rapid fossil-fuel reductions and greater adaptation funding.