Regulated rail fares in England could rise by about 4.2% next year if the current formula tied to July 2024 RPI inflation holds, following last year’s 4.6% cap above RPI.

Regulated fares cover season tickets on most commuter routes, some off-peak long-distance returns, and flexible city-area tickets, while unregulated fares set by operators are expected to rise similarly.

If applied, the increases would mean an example Brighton to London annual season ticket would rise to £5,423, and a Leeds to Manchester flexi-ticket would rise to £3,754.95.

Labour MPs and advocates are pushing to address affordability, with a Liberal Democrat MP urging consideration of fare cuts for passengers over 31 due to perceived gaps in support after that age.

The Department for Transport says no decision has been made yet about fares after the current freeze ends and that options are being considered to keep transport affordable.

A Department for Transport spokesperson emphasized that the government is reviewing options and that the current freeze aims to reduce travel costs, with potential future decisions still to come.

The rail fares freeze is described as providing relief and potentially saving over £300 per year on some routes, but no post-freeze decision has been made, with various options under consideration.

If the same formula as the previous year is applied, the predicted increase would be 4.2% for 2027 fares.