JPMorgan’s analysts argue that Bitcoin could attract more ongoing support than gold if investors unwind hedges on Bitcoin ETFs, since Bitcoin ETFs have only recovered about half of 2026 inflows while gold ETFs have fully recovered their outflows.

Institutional positioning remains high for both assets, but Bitcoin’s ETF short interest (IBIT) is among the year’s highs while GLD’s short interest remains below average, signaling different hedging and backing dynamics.

The proposed mechanism is that as hedges on Bitcoin unwind—puts close and shorts cover—Bitcoin could re-rate higher given crowded bearish positioning, while gold has less slack to unwind because its hedging has normalized.

Context notes include 2025 volatility for the asset being unusually low for its short history, a factor Balchunas says could attract big institutions in the future.

Market items mentioned in passing include previews and investments across several companies, underscoring a broader market context rather than a focused Bitcoin/gold debate.

The report notes a lack of commentary from other major Wall Street institutions on this topic.

Balchunas emphasizes that bear versus bull theses reflect different investor bases and market maturity, with no official AUM figures disclosed for either side in the discussion.

Placing a market snapshot, a broad crypto rally is noted with notable moves in several coins and tokens as of mid-September.

External factors such as shifts in real yields, dollar strength, inflation trends, and policy developments could alter the interpretation of ETF dynamics.

IBIT’s short interest reached the highest level of 2026 by end of August, at about 3.53% of the float, roughly 0.6 days of trading volume.

Total net assets across Bitcoin ETFs stood around $103.3 billion in early September, roughly 6% of Bitcoin’s estimated market capitalization.

Bitcoin traded near $76,500 with little intraday movement on the noted day.