Treasurer Jim Chalmers will reveal in a speech that the intergenerational report projects about 9 million Australians will be over the age pension age (67) by 2066, with pension spending as a share of GDP expected to fall from 2.3% to 1.8% over that period.

There is a political debate over early access to super, with One Nation proposing drawing a portion of the 12% super guarantee as income for up to three years, and the Liberal Party reportedly weighing a similar idea by a different mechanism, both viewed as risking long-term retirement incomes and budget sustainability.

Chalmers argues that keeping super at the core of retirement policy will yield the lowest OECD pension spending as a share of the economy, even as costs moderate.

The report suggests superannuation will lessen pressure on social security outlays and keep retirement incomes secure, with the median retirement balance projected to reach about $450,000 by the mid-2030s (up from around $200,000 today).

Global comparisons show pension spending rising in countries like the UK, Canada, New Zealand, and the US, while Australia trends downward thanks to its superannuation system.

Chalmers frames current Coalition and One Nation proposals as a threat to compulsory super and older Australians’ retirement incomes, calling it a pivotal battle for the future of super.

The intergenerational report, begun by Peter Costello in 2002, is due to be delivered on September 21 and outlines long-term budget pressures and the role of superannuation in moderating pension costs.

Opposition figures, including Andrew Bragg, caution that expanding early super access could lead to more retirees who are renters, prompting scrutiny over policy calibration.