US Leads AI Supercomputing Race as Power Demands Threaten Grid by 2030
April 25, 2025
The United States dominates the AI supercomputing landscape, accounting for approximately 75% of global computing power, while China holds around 15%.
Ownership of AI supercomputing power has shifted significantly from the public sector to private companies, rising from 40% in 2019 to 80% in 2025.
This increasing demand for electricity may push renewable energy sources to their limits, leading to a greater reliance on fossil fuels, which have negative environmental impacts.
Market analysts have observed a recent slowdown in data center projects, indicating a potential cooling in the industry amid concerns over unsustainable expansion.
Critics have pointed out that AI data centers incur high water consumption and take up valuable real estate, with some states losing over $100 million annually in tax revenue due to excessive incentives.
This trend indicates a broader shift from research-focused applications to commercial uses of supercomputers, driven by the industry's race to develop AI that surpasses human intelligence.
Since 2019, the computational performance of AI supercomputers has increased at a rate of 2.5 times per year, while both hardware costs and power consumption have doubled annually.
Despite anticipated advancements in chip availability and funding, AI supercomputers may face significant power constraints by 2030, according to research from Epoch AI.
Wells Fargo forecasts that energy consumption from AI data centers could rise by 20% by 2030, potentially straining the power grid.
Looking ahead to June 2030, projections suggest that leading AI supercomputers will require around 2 million AI chips, cost approximately $200 billion, and demand 9 gigawatts of power, equivalent to the output of nine nuclear reactors.
Data centers are expected to house millions of chips and require electricity equivalent to that of a large city's grid, posing significant infrastructure challenges for AI development.
In response to these challenges, OpenAI is collaborating with Softbank and other investors to raise up to $500 billion for a network of AI data centers.
Summary based on 4 sources
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Sources

TechCrunch • Apr 24, 2025
Within six years, building the leading AI data center may cost $200B
Business Insider • Apr 24, 2025
AI supercomputers are getting bigger each year — and one study projects they could need as much power as a city by 2030
PYMNTS.com • Apr 25, 2025
AI Supercomputers May Run Into Power Constraints by 2030
Interesting Engineering • Apr 24, 2025
AI supercomputers may cost $200B by 2030, demand power of 9 nuclear plants