Apple is projected to overtake Samsung in 2025 in global smartphone shipments, as iPhone volumes rise about 10% while Samsung grows around 4.6%, with the overall market climbing about 3.3%.

Bloomberg reports holiday-quarter revenue could approach a record near $140 billion, underscoring Apple’s strong momentum as consumer demand holds up.

Bloomberg also cites future plans including a foldable iPhone and a budget iPhone 17e in 2026, followed by a major iPhone redesign in 2027.

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Leadership momentum is driven by strong reception to the iPhone 17 lineup and an upgraded replacement cycle, with a large pool of prior iPhone owners poised to upgrade.

iPhone 17 sales are supporting double-digit gains in the U.S. and China, aided by easing U.S.–China tensions and a weaker dollar boosting demand in emerging markets.

Easing trade tensions and a softer dollar are helping Apple expand into developing markets and fuel demand.

Analysts emphasize the replacement cycle as a key driver, noting about 358 million secondhand iPhones were sold from 2023 to mid-2025, many of which are likely to upgrade.

Apple benefits from a growing wave of pandemic-era iPhone users moving into upgrade cycles, reinforcing sales momentum.

Apple’s guidance positions the upcoming holiday quarter as its biggest ever, with Tim Cook pointing to strong early performance of the iPhone 17 lineup despite weaker reception for the iPhone Air.

Counterpoint tallies 358 million used iPhones sold between 2023 and mid-2025, signaling a large cohort ready to upgrade to newer models.

Overall, the replacement cycle is accelerating, with a massive pool of used iPhones entering the market that will likely migrate to newer iPhone releases.