Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are seeing rising activity as bettors place wagers against Elon Musk’s ambitious plans and sometimes reap significant gains when events don’t unfold as hoped.

A notable bettor, David Bensoussan, wagered nearly $10,000 against Musk forming a new political party and earned about 10% when the party did not materialize, ultimately growing his Musk-related portfolio to over $36,000 across 12 related markets.

Bettors have profited on a range of Musk-related bets, from the timing of a robotaxi service in California to the likelihood of a new US political party, with some wins totaling tens of thousands of dollars.

The broader context shows how prediction markets have expanded and gained legal legitimacy following regulatory developments in 2024.

Kalshi and Polymarket differ in how they define market terms and settle outcomes: Kalshi handles disputes, while Polymarket relies on UMA token holders for resolution.

Markets track diverse Musk topics—from product launches like robotaxis and Full Self-Driving to personal milestones and financial outcomes—causing odds to shift as events unfold.

Musk’s AI company xAI has integrations with both Kalshi and Polymarket, driving substantial interest in Musk-related topics on these platforms.

Musk’s own engagement with prediction markets, including commentary on odds via X, further fuels participation and market activity.

The integration of xAI with Kalshi and Polymarket has helped sustain a high volume of Musk-related topics on these platforms since 2024.

There are notable differences in odds between platforms—for example, Kalshi once priced a 14.5% chance of Tesla launching the Optimus humanoid robot within a year, while Polymarket showed a higher 68% likelihood of unsupervised FSD by a set date, behavior that evolved after Musk’s safety-monitors update.

Kalshi later displayed 100% odds on a related outcome after Musk stated safety-monitor removal for robotaxi operations in Texas, illustrating how statements can swing market expectations.

The article highlights concrete bets and outcomes, such as Musk not forming a new party by a deadline or the timing of unsupervised FSD and robotaxi developments, to illustrate how event contracts function and how rules affect results.