Meta is projected to surpass Google in global digital ad revenue for 2026, reaching about $243.46 billion to Google's $239.54 billion, signaling a major shift in the online advertising landscape.

The momentum comes from Reels monetization, stronger AI-driven ad targeting, and growth in Meta products like WhatsApp and Threads.

Analysts say Meta’s growth is unusual for a platform of its size, enabled by AI-driven user engagement—such as longer Reels watch times—that expands ad slots and revenue opportunities.

Despite regulatory and legal headwinds, analysts expect near-term ad growth to be driven by performance and scale rather than regulatory events.

Both Meta and Google declined to comment on the report.

Advertisers are prioritizing platforms that combine scale with automation and deliver measurable ROAS.

In market context, Meta’s stock dipped slightly in pre-market trade, continuing a year-to-date decline around 4.5% but up about 18.5% over the last 12 months; Alphabet also edged lower pre-market but is up roughly 1.4% year-to-date and nearly 100% over the past year.

Market reaction showed Meta shares down about 0.7% near $625, while Alphabet traded largely flat near $317.

Google’s ad business—encompassing Google Ads and YouTube—continues to grow but at a slower pace.

Analysts peg both Meta and Alphabet with Strong Buy consensus, with upside potential around 34.6% for Meta and 20.4% for Alphabet per TipRanks.

The trend reflects a broader move in digital advertising toward automation, scalable reach, and AI-driven optimization.

Google faces headwinds from a shrinking U.S. search ad share (around 48.5% in 2026), rising competition from Amazon and new AI/search entrants, and limited monetization on YouTube Premium.