Nvidia's AI Expansion Fuels Record Growth Amidst Margin Pressure and Competition

October 7, 2026
Nvidia's AI Expansion Fuels Record Growth Amidst Margin Pressure and Competition
  • In the bull case, demand for AI is widening from training to deployment, with CUDA software enabling Nvidia chips to handle both training and inference, and management aiming for roughly 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028, with near-100% growth possible if supply lines meet demand.

  • Another bullish view notes AI computing expanding from training to running models, Nvidia targeting about 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028, supported by liquidity and risk management through lending partnerships, customer guarantees, and high revenue per gigawatt of data-center capacity.

  • Nvidia recently announced a record increase to its share buyback program, signaling buoyant confidence in the stock.

  • Nvidia faces financing risks for customers as data-center spending climbs, potential Rubin chip ramp delays due to memory shortages, and competition from AMD and cloud providers building in-house chips or partnering with Broadcom.

  • To mitigate financing risk, Nvidia has backed large lenders like Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, and Apollo to support customer data-center purchases, offering to cover as much as 25% of losses if chips decline in value, with revenue per gigawatt rising with each chip generation.

  • In the bear case, Nvidia’s gross margin outlook for fiscal 2028 was trimmed to about 72–73% from around 75% due to higher memory prices, and Rubin’s contribution to data-center revenue may be limited this quarter with ramp possibly slipping into 2027 amid memory shortages and potential delayed sales.

  • Further bear considerations note that margin pressure persists if memory prices stay high, and customer credit or demand could strain if cloud cash flows deteriorate.

  • Nvidia has broken out to record highs after a stagnant period, with investors like Ken Fisher highly bullish, as Fisher Asset Management held about $18.2 billion in Nvidia shares (about 5.42% of its portfolio) as of Q2.

  • Fisher Asset Management, Nvidia’s largest hedge fund holder in Q2, increased its stake by around 3% amid strong AI-related demand.

  • The stock’s momentum has been driven by robust demand for AI-related computing, lifting Nvidia to record levels after a flat spell.

  • Valuation sits around a forward P/E of 25.7, modestly above the sector median and below Nvidia’s five-year average, with expected EPS growth near 95% in fiscal 2027 and about 70% in fiscal 2028, and a PEG around 0.49 suggesting undervaluation if forecasts materialize.

  • Customer risk remains: major cloud players faced cash burn and rising debt in Q2, with their cash generation likely to only partially cover data-center spending through 2028, and Nvidia’s guarantees and financing support mean demand could be stressed if a large customer defaults.

Summary based on 2 sources


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Sources

Nvidia (NVDA): Is There Still Room to Run?

Insider Monkey • Oct 7, 2026

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