UK GDP Growth Slows: Challenges Persist Amid Inflation and Trade Tensions
August 14, 2025
The UK economy experienced a modest GDP growth of 0.3% between April and June, which exceeded forecasts but reflected a slowdown from the previous quarter's 0.7%, driven mainly by the services sector including scientific R&D, engineering, and car sales.
Economists warn that ongoing uncertainties related to trade and fiscal policy are likely to keep growth subdued in the third quarter, with some analysts suggesting the economy is navigating between resilience and stagnation.
The overall economic outlook remains cautious, with consumer confidence still fragile, high savings rates due to economic concerns, and a potential increase in the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England.
The rise in unemployment is linked to increased corporate taxes and US tariffs, which have dampened business investment and consumer confidence, while sectors like retail and hospitality are struggling due to higher costs.
A recent trade agreement with the US, including reduced tariffs on British steel and aluminum, offers some support, though a 10% tax on many other UK imports remains a concern.
The UK government is expected to face inevitable tax hikes in the upcoming autumn Budget, with economists warning that subdued growth and fiscal tightening may necessitate increased revenue measures.
While growth was decent, some experts warn that the momentum is insufficient to fix public finances, and the upcoming budget could involve further tax hikes amid low confidence and waning investment.
Trade tensions, especially with the US, and global uncertainties have contributed to stockpiling and a slowdown in sectors like housebuilding, with some analysts emphasizing the importance of boosting household and business confidence.
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee recently voted to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, adopting a cautious stance amid subdued GDP growth and inflation risks.
Britain's GDP per capita has fallen behind Italy's for the first time since 2001, reflecting declining living standards amid slow growth, rising unemployment, and inflation.
Despite the positive GDP figures, high inflation and rising interest rates continue to pose challenges, with UK interest rates still twice as high as in the Eurozone, making investments more expensive.
This growth was largely due to a recovery in June after weak activity in April and May, with some economic activity pulled forward due to changes in stamp duty and tariffs, and was supported by government spending.
Summary based on 25 sources
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Sources

The Guardian • Aug 14, 2025
UK economy grew by 0.4% in June on stronger services and construction output – business live
BBC News • Aug 14, 2025
Can the UK still claim to be the fastest-growing G7 economy?
BBC News • Aug 14, 2025
UK economic growth slows but beats forecasts
CNBC • Aug 14, 2025
UK economy grows by better-than-expected 0.3% in second quarter