Donald Trump's trade policies have significantly impacted U.S. shipping, leading to a decline in shipments at major ports and raising concerns about an impending recession.

Despite a strong start in Q1 2025, monthly imports measured in TEUs are projected to decline sharply, with expectations of a 22% year-over-year decrease starting in May.

The Port of Los Angeles anticipates a staggering 35% drop in import volumes in the coming weeks, with shipments from China nearly ceasing altogether.

Container bookings from China to the U.S. have plummeted by 45% as of mid-April 2025, indicating a sharp reduction in trade activity.

Experts predict that this decline in shipping will lead to empty shelves and potential mass layoffs in trucking and retail by early June, culminating in a recession by summer.

Economists warn that Trump's tariffs, including a 145% tax on Chinese imports, may lead to higher consumer prices and reduced economic growth.

Flexport reported that ocean carriers are cutting transpacific trade capacity faster than during the pandemic, with several carriers suspending weekly service loops.

An April survey revealed that 80% of mid-sized toy companies have canceled orders due to tariffs, with many fearing business closures if current trade policies persist.

The National Retail Federation forecasts a 25% year-over-year decline in U.S. import volumes for the second half of 2025, with total cargo volume potentially dropping by over 15% for the year.

Consumer confidence has reached record lows, and there is a noticeable slowdown in tourism, particularly in international travel.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted at a potential deal with China regarding tariffs following discussions during the recent IMF and World Bank meetings.

Economist Paul Krugman has compared the current trade collapse to the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, attributing the chaos to Trump's unpredictable policies.