The November report was delayed by the 43-day government shutdown, with the Commerce Department catching up on postponed data.

The National Retail Federation projects November-December 2025 retail sales to grow about 3.7%–4.2% year over year, totaling roughly $1.01–$1.02 trillion, with final results due next month alongside December data.

Analysts caution that strength may be uneven, noting spending appears concentrated among higher-income households with recent wealth gains, suggesting a mixed overall consumption picture.

The report offers only a partial view of consumer spending because it excludes many services such as travel and hotels, though it aligns with ongoing holiday demand.

Gains were led by auto dealers and gasoline stations, while grocery stores and furniture stores showed modest or negative changes, and department stores lagged with a 2.9% drop.

Increases were led by higher sales in cars, building materials, sporting goods, miscellaneous retailers, and restaurants, signaling solid underlying spending despite broader labor-market concerns.

Economists note shoppers remain cautious but continue to spend, aided by larger-than-normal tax refunds anticipated in early 2026, with weaknesses seen in home improvement, home furnishings, and some electronics.

Subcomponents show strength in apparel, online sales, and sporting goods, while some categories like furniture and consumer electronics showed softer or flat performance.

Early holiday data suggest solid spending, though strain persists among lower-income households and hiring strength remains a concern for sustained momentum.

Markets and policymakers view the data as influential for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, with signs pointing toward potential caution on rate cuts at the January meeting.

Some retailers, including Lululemon and Abercrombie & Fitch, reported favorable holiday signals ahead of broader results from Walmart, Target, and others.

Retail sales in November rose 0.6% month over month, aided by stronger holiday shopping and marking an improvement after October’s revised 0.1% decline.