In February, the US Supreme Court rejected Trump’s global tariff regime, yet Trump signaled continued use of tariffs despite the ruling.

Washington pursues sweeping and unpredictable tariffs, driving cycles of retaliation and negotiation in the bilateral relationship.

January 2026 reflects that pattern, with China closing 2025 strong on trade surplus and benefiting from redirected trade flows.

There were stabilising signs from mid-2025 to mid-2026, such as export license approvals for rare earth magnets, limited U.S. AI chip exports, and extensions to tariff truces.

The story tracks US-China trade tensions toward a planned Trump–Xi summit in May 2026, moving from tit-for-tat tariffs to multi-track negotiations, ongoing high-level talks, and periodic meetings.

Key 2025 developments include China widening export controls on critical minerals and rare earths, while the U.S. imposes tariffs and export controls on software and takes actions affecting shipping and other sectors.

April 2026 saw Trump unleash sweeping 10% tariffs and later broader 'Liberation Day' tariffs on all imports, provoking Chinese retaliation and tariff escalations beyond 100%, with China also restricting rare earth exports.

From 2025 into 2026, both sides conduct investigations, negotiations, and high-level talks, including Section 301 probes and reciprocal reviews of trade practices.

The timeline centers on notable months like February and March 2025, highlighting tariff increases, export controls, reciprocal investigations, and negotiations shaping the lead-up to the May summit.

March developments include the launch of Section 301 probes by the U.S. into Chinese industries, reciprocal Chinese investigations, and plans for a mid-May Trump–Xi summit after geopolitical delays.

By mid-2026, renewed licensing for Nvidia AI chips to China and ongoing tariff negotiations point to tempered tensions and efforts to extend tariff truces while addressing critical minerals and rare earths.

China ends 2025 with a record trade surplus as exports to the U.S. decline and trade redirects toward Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America.