A University of North Florida poll shows a tight Florida governor race, with Byron Donalds leading David Jolly 46% to 41% and 6% undecided, suggesting a potentially close contest.

Demographic breakdown indicates Jolly leads Hispanics (53% to 35%), while Donalds leads Whites (55% to 34%), with Donalds strongest in North Florida and Central Florida and Jolly leading in South Florida.

A second PORL poll of 848 likely voters finds Republicans maintaining the lead in both the governor and Senate contests as November approaches.

Analysts flag concerns about the raw sample skew (GOP-friendly +20 pre-weighting) and note margins are modestly shifted after post-sampling weighting.

Affordability remains top of mind for voters, with inflation, housing costs, and property taxes each rated as major concerns, shaping Republican and Democratic issue priorities.

When considering an amendment, state economists estimate a projected $11.8 billion local budget shortfall after five years, not two.

PORL uses a mixed-mode design with 18 geographic strata and a two-step weighting process, benchmarked to the 2022 electorate.

Amendment 3 polling shows 61% favoring phasing out taxes on non-school homestead properties, crossing the 60% threshold for passage.

Pollster notes the races are closer than in recent cycles, possibly reflecting midterm dynamics and current party dynamics.

Despite weighting adjustments, the methodology is described as plausible with clear documentation and alignment to broader electoral patterns.

Campaign messaging pivots to General Election themes, with Donalds warning of Obama-like messaging from Jolly and Jolly promoting cross-aisle coalition-building.

Fundraising momentum for Vindman does not translate into polling leads, as Moody remains ahead in both Senate matchups.