A summer 2026 COVID-19 wave is underway, but hospitalizations, deaths, and emergency department visits remain comparatively low nationwide, with older adults, infants, and immunocompromised individuals still at higher risk.

Public health guidance emphasizes protecting high-risk populations—adults 65+, pregnant individuals, those with chronic conditions, and the immunocompromised—and planning for fall vaccination, antivirals, and back-to-school transmission risk, including an updated XFG-targeted vaccine and a shift toward shared decision-making for adults under 65.

Vulnerable groups, including older adults, infants, immunocompromised individuals, and the unvaccinated, remain at higher risk for serious outcomes and require continued caution.

The United States is experiencing a summer 2026 COVID-19 wave that spans all 50 states, highlighted by a discrepancy between surveillance systems: CDC wastewater baselines show very low activity, while WastewaterSCAN indicates high and rising levels.

Experts frame the trend as part of a seasonal pattern, with two annual waves historically occurring in summer and winter, and note that back-to-school activity may amplify transmission.

The current surge mirrors a late-summer/early-fall pattern seen in recent years, characterized by a steady pace rather than explosive growth and described as seasonal rather than pandemic.

COVID-19 displays a seasonal pattern with two infection cycles per year, with the rise beginning in July.

CDC mapping provides statewide and health service area views and will be updated as new data arrive, preserving historical estimates for trend tracking.

Wastewater surveillance remains a key tool for gauging community-level viral activity and can detect infections from asymptomatic individuals.

Wastewater data continue to track circulation of COVID-19, influenza A, and RSV, capturing asymptomatic or unreported infections.

Large states like California, Texas, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Georgia show higher transmission, with models indicating trend direction rather than exact case counts.

The major states collectively reflect broad regional engagement across the country, signaling rising transmission nationwide.