Ahead of Xi Jinping’s state visit to Washington, Trump and Xi are expected to discuss AI, tariffs, and rare earths as focal points, with broader questions about Taiwan policy and mineral supply on the table.

High-profile tech leaders, including OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Apple’s Tim Cook, and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, are among attendees, signaling the injections of industry clout into the diplomatic talks.

The U.S. seeks to slow China’s AI progress via export controls on advanced chips, while industry voices push for rapid development to stay competitive.

Possible outcomes include a negotiated deal tying compute access to verification and safety assurances, though current offers indicate substantial gaps between the two sides.

Washington says it will not trade export controls for rare earth supplies and continues to leverage mineral flows, while also discussing tariff reductions on non-sensitive goods within a broader Busan truce framework.

Tariff announcements are anticipated, but deep structural competition in tech, supply chains, and Taiwan policy suggests many outcomes may be cautious or symbolic rather than comprehensive agreements.

Autonomy in warfare raises ethical and strategic questions, with officials emphasizing the need to preserve human judgment and control over weapon systems.

Taiwan remains a central flashpoint: Beijing seeks stronger Washington signals against Taiwan independence, while allies fear policy softness could undermine regional security commitments.

China’s defense posture, including warnings against hegemonism and signs of friction with Japan, frames the security backdrop of the talks.

Rare earths feature prominently, with U.S. officials pressing China to honor prior commitments amid Beijing’s demands for relief on critical minerals.

There’s talk of a reciprocal tariff-reduction framework around $30 billion in goods and potential broader discussions on a tariff truce, agriculture, non-tariff barriers, and LNG exports as tokens before the midterms.

Trade and rare earths remain on the agenda, underscoring China’s dominance in critical minerals and ongoing tariff considerations.