Alaska’s governor’s race remains highly competitive, with Kreiss-Tomkins as the front-runner, but GOP infighting and negative campaigning could complicate the results under ranked-choice voting.

National Republicans continue to invest in Alaska, as the RGA’s involvement signals sustained strategic interest in the race despite Kreiss-Tomkins’ lead.

Primary results have solidified Kreiss-Tomkins as the insider favorite and a predicted winner in markets, while GOP candidates Bronson and Taylor worry about the impact of negative ads in a ranked-choice setup.

Independent expenditure groups are barred from coordinating with candidates, with gubernatorial fundraising by candidates themselves due Monday and federal filings due October 15.

Forward Frontier, backed by the Democratic Governors Association and allied groups, raised more than $1.3 million to support Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins.

An independent expenditure group backing Kreiss-Tomkins has raised over $1.5 million, largely from the DGA, and much of it has funded ads.

Campaigns reacted with caution or uncertainty about how the roughly $1.6 million from the RGA would be spent or which GOP candidate would benefit under ranked-choice.

Kreiss-Tomkins’ fundraising includes six-figure gifts from donors outside Alaska, while Alaska-based contributions come from many small donors; Republicans tread a more outside-focused, smaller-donor path.

Kreiss-Tomkins has drawn contributions from over 4,000 individuals, including more than 2,000 in Alaska; Bronson and Taylor have far fewer contributors.

Independent expenditure groups are pouring tens of millions into Alaska races, with notable activity in the governor, House, and Senate contests since the August primary.

In the House race, independent groups have spent over $6 million since the August primary, roughly split between groups backing Nick Begich III and Bill Hill.

Outside spending in the Senate race exceeds $31 million since August, with Republican-backed groups outspending Democratic efforts by several million and focusing on opposing candidates.