Democrats made major gains in the 2026 U.S. midterms, flipping at least 40 House seats and seven Senate seats, including a historic win in Texas; results in Mississippi and Alaska could add two more Senate seats.

Jaime Harrison called the result a severe defeat for Republicans, saying voters were reacting to corruption, Trump’s trade policies and the Iran war’s contribution to higher prices.

Bruce Heyman described the outcome as more a Republican loss than a Democratic victory, leaving Democrats with the challenge of holding on to independents and Republicans who shifted their support.

The losses have raised questions about Trump’s political influence and the future of MAGA, though former officials cautioned that his loyal supporters could keep him influential in Republican politics.

Asa Hutchinson said the results could open up the 2028 Republican field and give the party room to return to traditional priorities such as small government and free trade.

Frank McKenna expected some erosion in Trump’s MAGA support but said Trump’s promotion of Stephen Miller signaled he would continue pursuing core policies, including mass deportations.

For Canada, Heyman said the Republican losses could create an opening for trade talks; after Mark Carney’s recent conversation with Trump, the two sides planned to develop possible deal outlines.

McKenna warned that Trump’s threatened 50 per cent tariffs on Canadian autos, parts and steel, set to begin January 1, 2027, could severely disrupt cross-border auto trade, while pressure to lift them could help bring the countries to an agreement.

Heyman advised Canada to keep negotiating with the White House while diversifying its economy and building relationships with the new U.S. Congress, noting Trump may feel less constrained by political concerns as his presidency continues.