Republicans spent about $400 million on anti-trans ads during the 2026 election cycle, but the strategy failed to deliver the gains they expected as voters focused more on affordability, the war with Iran and corruption.

Democrats made major gains, flipping more than 40 congressional districts and taking control of the House and Senate, while also winning a majority of governorships and several state legislatures.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Democratic Rep. Sarah McBride both said attacks on transgender people did not motivate voters, while analysts said the messaging could not make up for Republicans’ lack of clear answers to pressing concerns.

Polling also suggested many voters wanted politicians to spend less time on trans issues; after the election, more than a third said ads about the issue made them less likely to support a candidate, more than twice the share who said such ads made them more likely to vote for one.

Republicans may have overlearned from 2024, when attacks on Democrats’ support for trans rights were widely credited with helping Donald Trump; a September 2026 memo from the conservative American Principles Project had warned that focusing on the issue alone might not be enough.

The strategy had seemed promising because surveys showed support for some restrictions, including bans on trans athletes in girls’ and women’s sports, and Trump’s 2024 campaign had used anti-trans messaging against Kamala Harris.

Elon Musk contributed nearly half a billion dollars to Republican-aligned groups and candidates, which spent millions on ads targeting Democrats’ support for trans rights, even though polls ranked trans issues low among voters’ priorities.

Some Democrats countered attacks by connecting their responses to personal values and broader concerns: Abdul El-Sayed framed rights as a constitutional principle, Christina Bohannan redirected an attack about girls’ sports toward drug-company influence, and Sam Forstag tied fairness to his family and opposition to government intrusion.

LGBTQ+ advocacy groups urged Democratic candidates to respond authentically without amplifying attacks or abandoning trans people, then turn to issues voters care about; they said silence or conceding to Republican framing was ineffective.

Still, anti-trans ballot measures passed or appeared likely to pass in Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska and Washington, including restrictions on transgender students’ participation in sports and a Colorado measure targeting gender-affirming surgeries for minors.

Democrats won in states where some of those measures passed, underscoring that voters’ choices on ballot initiatives and candidates did not always align.

Republican pollster Chris Wilson said the issue itself had not changed, but its context had: as the governing party in 2026, Republicans faced greater scrutiny over economic conditions and their performance, leaving LGBTQ+ advocates to view the mixed results as a possible warning ahead of 2028.