Florida voters approved Amendment 3 with 62% of the vote, and the Florida Policy Institute estimates the measure could leave local governments statewide facing a roughly $12 billion shortfall.

For Manatee County, Kruse warned the revenue hit could reach about $150 million; CFO Claudia Campos estimates losses of $62.9 million in 2027 and $113.1 million in 2028. Kruse expects the county to maintain existing assets with lower service levels rather than build new parks or widen roads.

The county’s seven-member commission is starting budget planning earlier than usual, with an initial post-Amendment 3 discussion scheduled for a Dec. 9 work session and more work sessions and community meetings planned for the first quarter of 2027.

Some options for replacing lost revenue depend on state legislation, including more flexibility to use tourist development taxes, approved impact fees, indexed local gas taxes and a higher sales tax; the Legislature does not meet until March, while Amendment 3 takes effect Jan. 1.

Rep. Bill Conerly said local governments will need different responses because the amendment affects them differently, and he believes Manatee County has room to save; Kruse countered that the county has lowered its millage in five of the past six years, by a total of 0.712 mills.

Kruse cautioned that replacing property-tax revenue with sales taxes or fees could weigh more heavily on lower-income residents, undercutting claims that Amendment 3 would make living more affordable.

The first identified casualty is the Suncoast Prosper scholarship program, which depended on Amendment 3 failing and would have provided gap funding for more than 1,400 students at a projected county cost of $7.5 million over three years.

Amendment 3 is also expected to cut revenue from the children’s services millage: Kruse estimated an $8 million decrease, while the Florida Policy Institute projected a loss exceeding $9.4 million over two years; in 2025, the millage raised more than $16.7 million for 55 programs serving 35,292 residents.

Residents could also see paid downtown parking, higher non-ad valorem fees and smaller library collections, while funding for school resource officers may be reduced unless the school district helps cover the cost.

Among the requested projects unlikely to proceed are softball fields in Parrish, a dementia center and a permanent animal shelter estimated to cost more than $20 million; officials said cuts will affect all areas, not just specific districts or communities.

New commissioners Elizabeth Arnold and Tara Poulton may bring experience in finding efficiencies and managing tight budgets: Poulton named public safety as her top priority, while Arnold pointed to consolidating equipment and resources.

Kruse warned that Palmetto may struggle to fund services because it has a limited commercial tax base and many homes with low assessed values; if the city cannot provide services, the county may have to take responsibility for roads, facilities and additional utility customers.