Trump threatened to double tariffs on Mexico unless it stopped a migrant caravan of about 1,500 people that left Tapachula, near Guatemala, on Tuesday; most were from Central America.

The threat adds migration to negotiations over the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which remains in force as discussions continue after Washington declined to renew it in its existing form.

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said no larger migrant group had reached the U.S. border during Trump’s current term and that Mexico was explaining the obstacles to reaching the United States, helping people return home safely, and allowing those who wished to stay in Mexico to do so under specified conditions.

Sheinbaum ruled out using force, saying the National Migration Institute, National Guard and other institutions would provide support and information rather than resort to repression or violence.

Some caravan members reportedly hoped Democratic victories in the U.S. midterm elections would make entry easier, but their comments do not signal a change in U.S. immigration policy.

The State Department has revoked visas, or eligibility to apply for them, for more than 15 people suspected of organizing migrant caravans.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer did not say whether the tariff increase was likely or identify its legal authority, but said Trump was prepared to take measures to protect gains at the border.

Meanwhile, a separate USTR investigation into Mexico’s manufacturing capacity remains unresolved; it opened in March, its comment period ended in May, and the agency has not published a determination.

The stakes are substantial: U.S.-Mexico trade totaled $96.34 billion in September 2026, including $38.9 billion handled through Laredo, Texas.

Higher duties could affect manufacturing, agriculture and cross-border supply chains, especially the automotive sector, because the two economies are closely connected.

No federal agency has estimated the cost of doubling the tariff; the Congressional Budget Office says consumers bear most tariff costs, while the Tax Foundation estimates current duties will cost the average household about $820 this year, including roughly $130 from tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods.

Tariff threats tied to migration have previously served as negotiating leverage, with Mexico agreeing to enforcement measures while the threatened duties did not fully take effect.