After Democrats’ major midterm victories, Trump enters the final two years of his presidency politically weakened, but reduced congressional support could also make his behavior less predictable and potentially more dangerous.

The Republican defeat followed an eight-month war in Iran that pushed up fuel prices, persistent cost-of-living pressures and backlash over deadly masked immigration raids in Minneapolis.

Even so, Republicans showed little appetite for breaking with Trump: they blocked an effort to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and chose Trump ally Jim Jordan as their minority leader for the next Congress.

The White House says Trump will keep pursuing his “America First” agenda while remaining open to working with Democrats; Hoover Institution research fellow Bill Whalen thinks Trump may seek compromises to show he remains relevant.

Others expect confrontation instead: Newt Gingrich predicts Trump and Miller will plan a comeback, while Democratic congressman Jim Himes says it is unclear whether Trump will act as a dealmaker or an aggressive partisan.

Rick Wilson argues that Trump’s impulsivity, without the congressional shield he has enjoyed, could lead to angry and erratic behavior as potential 2028 contenders JD Vance, Ron DeSantis and Ted Cruz position themselves and Trump may try to act as kingmaker.

Trump’s recent signals have been mixed, from calling his deportation policy “too tough” while rejecting amnesty to appointing immigration hardliner Stephen Miller as White House chief of staff and mock-offering the press secretary job to UFC president Dana White.

Miles Taylor, a former Department of Homeland Security chief of staff, warns that a smaller circle of highly loyal appointees could enable Trump’s most extreme decisions; he says Miller has been willing to cross legal boundaries and dare courts to intervene.

Taylor says defying judicial orders, including Supreme Court rulings, could trigger a constitutional crisis, and that foreign policy may become even more consequential as domestic constraints increase.

Trump will retain substantial freedom to pursue goals involving Iran, Israel, Ukraine and China, with observers warning of risks that include threats to NATO and territorial ambitions, as well as possible inaction if Russia advances or China moves against Taiwan.