Sequoia's Contrarian Strategy: Fewer Bets, Higher Focus Amid Valuation Volatility and Government Scrutiny
November 3, 2025
Botha, a libertarian who favors free markets, acknowledged that industrial policy can be sensible when it protects national interests, especially in competition with China.
In the past year, Sequoia has invested in 20 seed-stage companies, including nine pre-formation deals, highlighting an emphasis on partnering with founders early.
Stay small and focused, mindful that only a handful of companies truly matter, a stance reinforced by concerns about government attempts to join private cap tables.
Investment process emphasizes consensus and high-potential bets, using anonymous Monday polls to surface candid views and avoid bias.
The idea that venture capital isn’t a true asset class; excluding the top firms often underperforms broad market indexes, arguing for a smaller, selective VC approach.
Sequoia’s approach remains contrarian: invest in fewer, high-potential companies and give them substantial focus, a stance that stands out amid heavy fundraising and government scrutiny.
A Daedalus-and-Icarus metaphor warns against moving too fast and overextending, underscoring the risks of rapid escalation in valuations and growth.
A portfolio example shows a valuation surge from $150 million to $6 billion in 12 months in 2021 followed by a retreat, illustrating how inflated paper valuations can demotivate teams when they evaporate.
Roelof Botha cautioned at TechCrunch Disrupt about government co-investment in private companies and the risks of state involvement in cap tables.
Patience guides Sequoia’s approach: founders not needing funds soon should delay fundraising, while those with a six-to-twelve month window should act quickly when terms are favorable.
Founders are advised to avoid fundraising for at least a year to maximize long-term value, raising within six months if capital is urgently needed due to market conditions.
Sequoia’s decisions are made collegially with equal partner votes, aided by weekly anonymous polls to surface opinions and prevent coalitions.
Summary based on 2 sources
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Sources

Ukraine news - #Mezha • Nov 2, 2025
Roelof Botha on Government Investment and Startup Growth Risks | Ukraine news - #Mezha