Sequoia's Contrarian Strategy: Fewer Bets, Higher Focus Amid Valuation Volatility and Government Scrutiny

November 3, 2025
Sequoia's Contrarian Strategy: Fewer Bets, Higher Focus Amid Valuation Volatility and Government Scrutiny
  • Botha, a libertarian who favors free markets, acknowledged that industrial policy can be sensible when it protects national interests, especially in competition with China.

  • In the past year, Sequoia has invested in 20 seed-stage companies, including nine pre-formation deals, highlighting an emphasis on partnering with founders early.

  • Stay small and focused, mindful that only a handful of companies truly matter, a stance reinforced by concerns about government attempts to join private cap tables.

  • Investment process emphasizes consensus and high-potential bets, using anonymous Monday polls to surface candid views and avoid bias.

  • The idea that venture capital isn’t a true asset class; excluding the top firms often underperforms broad market indexes, arguing for a smaller, selective VC approach.

  • Sequoia’s approach remains contrarian: invest in fewer, high-potential companies and give them substantial focus, a stance that stands out amid heavy fundraising and government scrutiny.

  • A Daedalus-and-Icarus metaphor warns against moving too fast and overextending, underscoring the risks of rapid escalation in valuations and growth.

  • A portfolio example shows a valuation surge from $150 million to $6 billion in 12 months in 2021 followed by a retreat, illustrating how inflated paper valuations can demotivate teams when they evaporate.

  • Roelof Botha cautioned at TechCrunch Disrupt about government co-investment in private companies and the risks of state involvement in cap tables.

  • Patience guides Sequoia’s approach: founders not needing funds soon should delay fundraising, while those with a six-to-twelve month window should act quickly when terms are favorable.

  • Founders are advised to avoid fundraising for at least a year to maximize long-term value, raising within six months if capital is urgently needed due to market conditions.

  • Sequoia’s decisions are made collegially with equal partner votes, aided by weekly anonymous polls to surface opinions and prevent coalitions.

Summary based on 2 sources


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