Experts predict that the military may launch a counteroffensive after the rainy season, bolstered by around 30,000 new troops recruited through conscription.

The Tatmadaw has been accused of deliberately targeting civilians in retaliation for their support of resistance groups, although the military denies these allegations.

As the military struggles to regain lost territory, it faces vulnerabilities when shifting troops, leaving it exposed on multiple fronts.

Currently, over 3 million people are displaced within Myanmar due to the ongoing conflict, with approximately 18.6 million in need of humanitarian assistance.

The military regime, known as the Tatmadaw, seized power from Aung San Suu Kyi's elected government in February 2021, sparking increased fighting with ethnic armed groups and the emergence of new pro-democracy militias.

On October 27, 2024, a coordinated offensive named Operation 1027 was launched by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, collectively known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance.

Since the offensive began, resistance forces have gained control of significant territory, pushing the Tatmadaw back toward central Myanmar, particularly around Naypyidaw and Yangon.

The military's setbacks have led to a dramatic increase in civilian casualties, with a 95% rise in deaths from airstrikes and a 170% increase from artillery since the offensive commenced.

China's involvement in the conflict has been complex, initially supporting the militias to combat organized crime along its border, while also attempting to mediate a ceasefire.

As resistance groups consolidate their gains, tensions are rising among them over control of newly captured areas, raising concerns about potential future conflicts.

The expansion of militia control could lead to increased tensions among different ethnic groups if the military regime falls, as current solidarity may not translate into unified political goals.

Analysts warn that without building trust and establishing common political objectives, the situation in Myanmar could devolve into fragmentation similar to that seen in Syria.