AI to Boost Global Trade by 40%, but Risks Widening Economic Divide, Warns WTO
September 17, 2025
Singapore is recognized for its proactive, principles-based AI regulation and has established an AI safety institute, serving as a model for resource-efficient AI development.
The WTO launched this report during its Public Forum, highlighting AI's promising opportunities for growth despite recent trade disruptions, and calling for international cooperation to ensure inclusive benefits.
AI is already improving trade efficiency through supply chain transparency, automated customs, and compliance, with digital services set to be transformed significantly, especially benefiting small producers and retailers.
Despite the potential, AI adoption remains uneven, with only 41% of small firms using AI compared to over 60% of large firms, and lower-income countries showing even lower adoption rates.
Market access for AI-related goods is hindered by tariffs up to 45% in some low-income economies, and restrictions are increasing, which could limit AI's global growth unless trade policies become more open.
The WTO stresses that expanding participation in trade agreements and reducing restrictions are essential to making AI more affordable and accessible worldwide.
Asian economies, including Singapore, are becoming central in AI trade, with rising imports and exports, and the AI training market in the Asia-Pacific region expected to grow rapidly.
AI adoption is expected to slightly reduce the skill premium and increase demand for capital, as AI relies heavily on capital inputs, potentially shifting demand from labor to capital.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) reports that artificial intelligence (AI) could boost global trade by nearly 40% and global GDP by 12-13% by 2040, driven by lower trade costs and increased productivity.
However, the report warns that without targeted investments and inclusive policies, AI could deepen economic divides, as access to digital infrastructure and skills remains uneven across countries and firms.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasizes that managing AI's transition requires investments in education, retraining, and social safety nets to support workers affected by automation.
To harness AI's benefits while mitigating disruptions, governments need to invest in education, retraining, and social safety nets, especially as AI could exacerbate income inequalities.
Summary based on 17 sources
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Sources

Economic Times • Sep 17, 2025
AI set to transform global trade, says World Trade Organization report
Economic Times • Sep 17, 2025
AI use can boost global trade by around 40% by 2040, GDP by 12-13%: WTO
Business Standard • Sep 17, 2025
AI to boost trade by nearly 40% by 2040 if gaps are bridged: WTO report
FRANCE 24 • Sep 17, 2025
AI may boost global trade value by nearly 40%: WTO