AI to Boost Global Trade by 40%, but Risks Widening Economic Divide, Warns WTO

September 17, 2025
AI to Boost Global Trade by 40%, but Risks Widening Economic Divide, Warns WTO
  • Singapore is recognized for its proactive, principles-based AI regulation and has established an AI safety institute, serving as a model for resource-efficient AI development.

  • The WTO launched this report during its Public Forum, highlighting AI's promising opportunities for growth despite recent trade disruptions, and calling for international cooperation to ensure inclusive benefits.

  • AI is already improving trade efficiency through supply chain transparency, automated customs, and compliance, with digital services set to be transformed significantly, especially benefiting small producers and retailers.

  • Despite the potential, AI adoption remains uneven, with only 41% of small firms using AI compared to over 60% of large firms, and lower-income countries showing even lower adoption rates.

  • Market access for AI-related goods is hindered by tariffs up to 45% in some low-income economies, and restrictions are increasing, which could limit AI's global growth unless trade policies become more open.

  • The WTO stresses that expanding participation in trade agreements and reducing restrictions are essential to making AI more affordable and accessible worldwide.

  • Asian economies, including Singapore, are becoming central in AI trade, with rising imports and exports, and the AI training market in the Asia-Pacific region expected to grow rapidly.

  • AI adoption is expected to slightly reduce the skill premium and increase demand for capital, as AI relies heavily on capital inputs, potentially shifting demand from labor to capital.

  • The World Trade Organization (WTO) reports that artificial intelligence (AI) could boost global trade by nearly 40% and global GDP by 12-13% by 2040, driven by lower trade costs and increased productivity.

  • However, the report warns that without targeted investments and inclusive policies, AI could deepen economic divides, as access to digital infrastructure and skills remains uneven across countries and firms.

  • WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasizes that managing AI's transition requires investments in education, retraining, and social safety nets to support workers affected by automation.

  • To harness AI's benefits while mitigating disruptions, governments need to invest in education, retraining, and social safety nets, especially as AI could exacerbate income inequalities.

Summary based on 17 sources


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