Policymakers’ fiscal decisions could influence the timing of any rate cut, with analysts noting the budget’s potential impact.

Analysts, including AJ Bell’s Danni Hewson, view the softer October data as boosting expectations for a December rate cut, while remaining wary of persistent food-price pressures.

Food and non-alcoholic drinks remained the main upside pressure, with bread, meat, fish, vegetables, chocolate, and confectionery higher, even as fruit prices fell slightly.

The UK’s inflation rate eased to 3.6% in October from 3.8% in September, driven by slower energy costs and travel, though rises in petrol, kitchen appliances and groceries tempered the relief.

The official CPI release is due at 07:00 GMT, with live updates and expert analysis to follow.

Policy voices emphasize messaging ahead of the next election, arguing against measures that could add to inflationary pressures.

Markets and analysts continue to expect Bank of England rate adjustments contingent on how inflation evolves.

Caution remains about wage growth and productivity, which could slow disinflation and complicate BoE policy.

The December rate-cut decision may be affected by fiscal policy details in the Chancellor’s budget and potential energy-cost adjustments like VAT or green levies.

The release presents a mixed signal: easing inflation but still above some forecasts, shaping monetary policy considerations.

Investors are watching November inflation data, the December MPC decision, and upcoming ONS wage and unemployment figures for rate-cut timing.

BoE forecasts target 2% inflation by 2027, but internal MPC divisions persist over how quickly to ease, with hawks arguing for restraint.