At a Security Conference in Disarmament, the United States accused China of conducting at least one covert nuclear test in June 2020, potentially decoupled to muff seism signals, as part of a broader push to revisit arms control without New START.

China denies the accusation, a position echoed by the Kremlin, which also says Russia and China have not conducted any nuclear tests.

U.S. officials and analysts warn that China’s ongoing modernization could bring its capabilities toward parity with the United States and Russia, potentially enabling technical feats not currently possessed by either power.

The piece situates the disclosure within the Daily on Defense format, including related headlines and upcoming events to signal ongoing defense and policy dialogue.

There is active debate among intelligence communities and policymakers about implications for arms control, deterrence, and regional security, especially regarding Taiwan and U.S. allies.

Analysts contend the charges could serve as a policy lever to shape negotiations, potentially incentivizing diversification or expansion of U.S. nuclear capabilities if arms control stalls.

Policy discussions focus on how testing would affect deterrence without triggering new arms races, with no formal U.S. policy shift announced yet.

Views diverge on the post-New START landscape: some fear an accelerated arms race, others argue those fears may be overstated.

Even within the U.S. weapons complex, there is disagreement over testing versus simulations, balancing expertise, confidence, and deterrence credibility.

Asia allies like Japan and South Korea may view renewed U.S. testing or deterrence shifts as impacting regional stability and extended deterrence commitments.

Analysts suggest China’s modernization could force Washington to rethink arms control to include China, moving beyond Russia-focused models.

Zelensky-adjacent remarks imply political timing in U.S. pressure on Ukraine negotiations, highlighting sovereignty concerns.