Efforts like Rubio’s India visit and attempts to hold a Quad summit have stalled, with leaders such as Modi and Japan’s Takaichi not participating in formal meetings, fueling stagnation.

Analysts describe the Quad as an informal, leaderless coalition lacking binding treaties, making sustained strategic unity dependent on high-level leadership and consensus.

Rand analyses warn that the Quad’s current low-risk agenda—vaccines, supply chains, critical technologies, and maritime awareness—falls short of delivering a credible deterrent against China.

Narrow focus on low-risk areas has limited the Quad’s ability to address core balance-of-power questions vis-a-vis China.

Japan, India, and Australia are increasingly hedging with stronger security partnerships and higher defense spending, signaling a move toward autonomous regional resilience.

India’s role in Quad events is muddled by tariff disputes and internal political considerations, creating uncertainty about future summits.

There is a real risk the Quad could become a hollow, performative alliance unless its members restore a clear, shared strategic purpose.

A lack of coherent leadership and purpose persists, with no leaders’ summit since 2024 and recent foreign ministers meetings seen as damage control rather than a strategic push.

China’s near-monopoly on rare earths and ongoing economic tensions constrain U.S. room to take a hard line, shaping Quad dynamics.

China views the Quad as fragile and potentially manipulable, wary of deep long-term unity and suspecting members may be bargaining chips in broader talks.

The Quad’s relevance is waning as U.S. policy shifts toward accommodating China, diminishing its credibility and strategic value among the four-member bloc.

With a broader realignment of U.S. priorities under Trump toward the Western Hemisphere and the Middle East, the Quad risks losing coherence as a united front.