TVK’s strategy to expand into Kerala rests on its strong showing in Tamil Nadu, a potentially favorable alignment with Kerala’s Congress-led trend, and Vijay’s popularity and organizational footprint in Kerala through the Vijay Makkal Iyakkam.

The Mullaperiyar Dam, built in 1895 and operated by Tamil Nadu on the Periyar river, remains a flashpoint as Kerala calls for a new dam citing seismic and safety concerns, while Tamil Nadu argues the existing structure is sound and supports raising its water level.

After the budget, discussions with Tamil Nadu and Karnataka’s chief ministers will intensify around Mullaperiyar and other interstate issues.

Kerala’s position emphasizes safety for Kerala and water access for Tamil Nadu, with Kerala casting the Tamil Nadu government’s policy as a condemnable shift.

TVK has begun laying groundwork for Kerala expansion, including flex boards, unofficial local groups, and discussions in border districts like Palakkad and Wayanad, signaling intent to extend influence beyond Tamil Nadu.

Kerala’s stake is practical and safety-related for downstream districts such as Ernakulam and Idukki, complicating TVK’s calculus as it balances cross-border ambitions with Tamil Nadu’s water-security priorities.

TVK’s policy highlights a dilemma: building cross-border appeal and leveraging Kerala’s election momentum while addressing a protracted water-rights dispute affecting Kerala’s safety and infrastructure.

A 2014 Supreme Court ruling allowed raising the dam height to 142 feet, with a possible 152 feet after strengthening, but Kerala blocked the strengthening, creating a decades-long deadlock.

Satheesan has long advocated a solution that secures Tamil Nadu’s water needs while safeguarding Kerala’s safety, a stance he maintained as Leader of the Opposition.