Australia faces a potential severe security and economic crisis if a China-Taiwan conflict escalates, with warnings of possible scenarios as early as 2028.

Former leaders criticize governments for lacking deterrence, warn that the AUKUS submarine plan may arrive too late, and urge stockpiling, diversified supply chains, and heightened societal readiness.

They call for a major shift in national mindset, urging allies to warn Beijing about consequences of aggression and to bolster Australia’s military capabilities.

A potential conflict could disrupt trade with China, invite missile strikes, and require Australia to join US-led actions, underlining current gaps in air defenses and economic vulnerability.

There is a projected one-in-three chance of China taking military action against Taiwan by 2028, influenced by Taiwan’s leadership and anti-secession laws.